Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 12.767070 14.624981 16.629560 18.949505 21.556690 24.392312 27.705962
2025-03-09 10.011117 12.519034 15.437957 19.071334 23.456756 28.562044 34.937340
2025-03-16 8.431454 11.162470 14.500330 18.852487 24.346531 31.018054 39.695328
2025-03-23 7.391758 10.295088 14.000250 19.031582 25.634964 33.949571 45.145615
2025-03-30 6.766434 9.842830 13.916186 19.640772 27.403175 37.476448 51.435076
2025-04-06 5.986023 9.077222 13.316225 19.470081 28.073827 39.557024 55.897373
2025-04-13 5.088793 8.039396 12.227165 18.501848 27.538000 39.928322 58.012313
2025-04-20 4.731427 7.743008 12.145091 18.920687 28.925437 42.958759 63.879793
2025-04-27 4.405322 7.455216 12.039471 19.276523 30.216085 45.888581 69.717599
2025-05-04 4.005669 7.009816 11.652440 19.167690 30.792830 47.795944 74.148805
2025-05-11 3.617659 6.542789 11.187897 18.892998 31.081093 49.266987 77.976938
2025-05-18 3.338355 6.227064 10.932351 18.916389 31.809340 51.403667 82.863918
2025-05-25 3.112583 5.987662 10.790496 19.125010 32.860396 54.114295 88.806466
2025-06-01 2.877560 5.709644 10.561739 19.172039 33.650810 56.456694 94.290660
2025-06-08 2.627135 5.377308 10.209636 18.977667 34.018854 58.129380 98.770018
2025-06-15 2.460669 5.183506 10.080534 19.149067 34.991855 60.795289 104.922199
2025-06-22 2.375304 5.135330 10.204397 19.764703 36.740512 64.783976 113.359663
2025-06-29 2.185304 4.863869 9.899676 19.592006 37.114601 66.516943 118.167961
2025-07-06 1.909499 4.392009 9.183760 18.618642 36.021666 65.734748 118.751627
2025-07-13 1.831610 4.320249 9.221325 19.039740 37.427311 69.234832 126.657444
2025-07-20 1.751535 4.235956 9.227023 19.397629 38.731097 72.606260 134.465475
2025-07-27 1.626159 4.041159 8.998531 19.288167 39.164432 74.472664 139.742878
2025-08-03 1.494324 3.818639 8.696249 19.011925 39.265652 75.747918 144.025972